Chennai Mathematical Institute


Data Science Seminar
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Predictions, Role of Interventions and the Crisis of Virus in India: A Data Science Call to Arms

Bhramar Mukherjee
University of Michigan.


India, the world's largest democracy, underwent five phases of lockdown from March 25-June 30 and several phases of unlocking since then. The virus curve appears to have turned the corner from late September and case-counts have been steadily going down. In this presentation, we provide a brief chronicle of the modeling experience of our study team over the last eight months. We start by discussing an extended SIR model for predicting case-counts in India. We then discuss methodological innovations by incorporating selective and imperfect viral testing when using case-counts in an extended SEIR model for COVID-19. We conclude with a strategic visioning exercise on, what comes next? This is joint work with many, with all supporting research materials and products available at

Bio: Prof Bhramar Mukherjee is John D. Kalbfleisch Collegiate Professor and Chair, Department of Biostatistics; Professor, Department of Epidemiology, and Professor of Global Public Health at the University of Michigan (UM) School of Public Health; Research Professor and Core Faculty Member, Michigan Institute of Data Science (MIDAS), University of Michigan. She also serves as the Associate Director for Quantitative Data Sciences, The University of Michigan Rogel Cancer Center. She is the cohort development core co-director in the University of Michigan’s institution-wide Precision Health Initiative.

Her research interests include statistical methods for the analysis of electronic health records, studies of gene-environment interaction, Bayesian methods, shrinkage estimation, analysis of multiple pollutants. Collaborative areas are mainly in cancer, cardiovascular diseases, reproductive health, exposure science, and environmental epidemiology. She has co-authored more than 260 publications in statistics, biostatistics, medicine, and public health and is serving as PI on NSF and NIH funded methodology grants. She is the founding director of the University of Michigan’s summer institute on Big Data. Bhramar is the current chair of the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS). She is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. She is the recipient of many awards for her scholarship, service and teaching at the University of Michigan and beyond, including the Gertrude Cox Award, from the Washington Statistical Society in 2016 and most recently the L. Adrienne Cupples Award, from Boston University in 2020. Mukherjee and her team have been modeling the SARS-CoV-2 virus trajectory in India since March 2020.