Statistical Methods in Finance 2017

Abstract

Hybrid model for forecasting market index

by Suraj Kumar

In this study, I have used the hybrid model for stock market forecasting using technical Indicators. BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 equity indexes from Indian stock market are used for measuring the performance of hybrid models. I have tried to forecast the indexes with their technical indicators. Hybrid models are Principal Component Regression (PCR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with input variables as first few principal components from principal component Analysis (PCA). A total of 27 technical indicators are used, which are commonly used in the market. Technical indicators have been generated from historical data of price and volume of the indexes. The empirical result shows that hybrid models perform better than traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, out of the two models; PCR has outperformed the modified ANN model.

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