Statistical Methods in Finance 2016

Dec 18 - 22, 2016


The lead-lag relationship between Futures and Spot Price - A case of the Oil and Oilseed contracts with special reference to Soybean

by Diganta Mukherjee

The necessity of managing the risk of the agricultural market has been established worldwide and the stabilization polices have shifted towards management of the concerned risk through market-based instruments. Since prices of agricultural commodities are determined by the forces of demand and supply, fluctuations in demand and supply is expected to result in high price risk for agribusiness. It is internationally appreciated that if the derivative markets function adequately, some of the important policy goals regarding price volatility of agricultural commodities can be addressed in a market oriented manner. Futures market is expected to work as a vehicle of price discovery. The commodity futures exchange provides a framework for convergence between futures and cash prices, making overall price formation across time more efficient. In this study we have evaluated the dominant role of the futures market in the price discovery process for the oil and oilseed futures contract traded on NCDEX.