3.30 p.m.
Is there a science behind opinion polls?
Rajeeva L. Karandikar
Chennai Mathematical Institute.
28-03-12

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Abstract

Is there a science behind opinion polls? How can obtaining opinion of, say 30,000 voters be sufficient to predict the outcome in a country with over 70 Crore voters?

We will address such questions and show that simple mathematics and statistics, lots of common sense and a good understanding of the ground reality or domain knowledge together can yield very good forecast or predictions of the outcome of elections based on opinion polls and exit polls. I will share my own experiences with opinion polls and exit polls over last 14 years.